Category: Forecasts
For the last two weeks, AAPL's price has been on a steadfast decline, to say the least. "Apple hasn't been trading like Apple," noted one active trader with a sizable following on Twitter. By then, I had already raised a warning flag by publishing a chart depicting a Head-and-Shoulders (HS) pattern on the verge of a breakdown.
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In early February, on the eve of the non-farm payroll report, I posited that the number will likely exceed most forecasts, especially those of economists who rely on an extrapolative approach to forecasting (a flawed approach). This call was utterly based on my analysis of TLT whose daily and weekly charts were crying to be heard. Now that TLT has fulfilled its near-term downside objective, robust support does exist near $110, making ownership of stocks a risky proposition, at least in the near-term.
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Three weeks ago, I painted an optimistic picture of KWK, calling for an upside target as high as $8 or $9. This is shown on chart 1 below. Those who bought the stock with me near $6 should exit here and wait for a break below $4.95 to short the stock as I believe it's headed down to $3.50. Personally, I sold some upside calls at the same time that I bought the shares, so not much harm was done.
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I wish all charts were as easy to read as chart 1 below. Whenever a triangle occurs in the
wave B or
wave X position of a structure, the ensuing move is always the last one in the direction of the trend (Elliott wave rules). In the case of MCD, the trend has been down since January 20th. Now that the correction is likely in the books, the higher-degree uptrend is ready to resume.
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Since OpenTable (OPEN) reported its earnings in early February, its stock price has been on a steady decline (26% decline off the earnings spike). Along the way, I observed two promising Rounding Bottom formations, but none of them bore any fruit. I had been long a few March and April contracts, but I finally exited at a loss upon realizing that I had been climbing the slope of hope.
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Amazon.com (AMZN) appears to be on the verge of breaking out of a 'bullish' triangle formation. Or is it? My expanded analysis shows otherwise. Should the bearish case prevail, a downside target of $153 is to be expected before hordes of buyers step back in.
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Someone solicited my opinion of Cirrus (CRUS) earlier on Wednesday, citing the red flag raised by an Elliott Wave analyst who regularly contributes to a prominent site. So, I decided to take a close look at it this evening. In a nutshell, the closer I looked, the more I liked it.
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Like Newton's apple, AAPL succumbed to the laws of gravity today, falling by more than 20 points from this morning's high. The last time the stock took such a precipitous dive was on February 15th when it caught the always ebullient crowd by surprise, charging them a 40-point toll in just two sessions. However, much to everyone's surprise, the stock did manage to recover in the following days, proceeding to set new all-time highs.
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I admit I jumped into APKT prematurely at $33/share. While my prior analysis was and still is sound, it wasn't thorough enough. In this writing, I'll expand on the prior analysis in hopes of asserting my bullish thesis.
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This week alone, I received about half a dozen inquiries concerning Acme Packet (APKT), one of the notable high-momentum stocks of 2011. Apparently, last summer's tax season was especially rough on this former member of the 'millionaires and billionaires' club of high-flying stocks. Pressured to pay its 'fair share', APKT ended up hemorrhaging almost 73% of its net worth. Who the heck is running this tech republic?
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